How Predictable is the Eurovision Song Contest?
The Eurovision Song Contest has long been a popular basis for betting, and popular fan websites such as Eurovisionworld collate the books from about a dozen different online bookmakers to make predictions about who will win the contest. The success of these sites is mixed: although Eurovisionworld’s particular compilation of bookmakers had identified the winner correctly in only two out of the last five contests by the evening of the final (2015 and 2019), if we use more flexible criteria such as the Top 5, the same site has on average identified 4 out of 5 of the Top 5 correctly.
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